Publications | jakehofman.com

Pre-registration for Predictive Modeling

Jake M Hofman, Angelos Chatzimparmpas, Amit Sharma, Duncan J Watts, Jessica Hullman

2023 preprint, arXiv:2311.18807

PDF Publisher link

Math Education with Large Language Models: Peril or Promise?

Harsh Kumar, David M Rothschild, Daniel G Goldstein, Jake M Hofman

2023 pre-print, SSRN 4641653

PDF Publisher link

Comparing traditional and LLM-based search for consumer choice: A randomized experiment

Sofia Eleni Spatharioti, David M Rothschild, Daniel G Goldstein, Jake M Hofman

2023 pre-print, arXiv:2307.03744

PDF Publisher link

An illusion of predictability in scientific results: Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability

Sam Zhang, Patrick Ryan Heck, Michelle Meyer, Christopher F Chabris, Daniel G Goldstein, Jake M Hofman

2023 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

PDF Publisher link

Round numbers can sharpen cognition

Huy Nguyen, Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein

2022 Proceedings of the 2022 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

Putting scientific results in perspective: Improving the communication of standardized effect sizes

Yea-Seul Kim, Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein

2022 Proceedings of the 2022 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

Investigating Perceptual Biases in Icon Arrays 🏆

Cindy Xiong, Ali Sarvghad, Çağatay Demiralp, Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein

2022 Proceedings of the 2022 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

Success stories cause false beliefs about success

George Lifchits, Ashton Anderson, Daniel G Goldstein, Jake M Hofman, Duncan J Watts

2021 Judgment and Decision Making

PDF Publisher link

Manipulating and measuring model interpretability

Forough Poursabzi-Sangdeh, Daniel G Goldstein, Jake M Hofman, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, Hanna Wallach

2021 Proceedings of the 2021 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science

Jake M Hofman, Duncan J Watts, Susan Athey, Filiz Garip, Thomas L Griffiths, Jon Kleinberg, Helen Margetts, Sendhil Mullainathan, Matthew J Salganik, Simine Vazire

2021 Nature

PDF Publisher link

How Good is Good Enough? Quantifying the Impact of Benefits, Accuracy, and Privacy on Willingness to Adopt COVID-19 Decision Aids

Gabriel Kaptchuk, Daniel Goldstein, Eszter Hargittai, Jake M Hofman, Elissa M Redmiles

2021 Digital Threats: Research and Practice

PDF Publisher link

Expanding the scope of reproducibility research through data analysis replications

Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein, Siddhartha Sen, Forough Poursabzi-Sangdeh, Jennifer Allen, Ling Liang Dong, Brenda Fried, Harpreet Gaur, Adnan Hoq, Emeka Mbazor, Naomi Moreira, Cindy Muso, Etta Rapp, Roymil Terrero

2021 Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

PDF Publisher link

Datamations: Animated Explanations of Data Analysis Pipelines

Xiaoying Pu, Sean Kross, Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein

2021 Proceedings of the 2021 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results 🏆

Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein, Jessica Hullman

2020 Proceedings of the 2020 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

Explanation, Prediction, and Causality: Three Sides of the Same Coin?

Duncan J Watts, Emorie D Beck, Elisa J Bienenstock, Jake Bowers, Aaron Frank, Anthony Grubesic, Jake M Hofman, Julia M Rohrer, Matthew Salganik

2020 OSF Preprints

PDF Publisher link

Expanding the Scope of Reproducibility Research Through Data Analysis Replications

Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein, Siddhartha Sen, Forough Poursabzi-Sangdeh

2020 Proceedings of The Web Conference 2020, Innovative Ideas in Data Science Workshop

PDF Publisher link

Split-door criterion: Identification of causal effects through auxiliary outcomes

Amit Sharma, Jake M. Hofman, Duncan J. Watts

2018 Annals of Applied Statistics (AOAS)

PDF Publisher link

To put that in perspective: Generating analogies that make numbers easier to understand

Chris Riederer, Jake M Hofman, Daniel G Goldstein

2018 Proceedings of the 2018 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

What’s Happening and What Happened: Searching the Social Web

Omar Alonso, Vasileios Kandylas, Serge-Eric Tremblay, Jake M. Hofman, Siddhartha Sen

2017 Proceedings of the 2017 ACM on Web Science Conference (WebSci)

PDF Publisher link

Prediction and explanation in social systems

Jake M Hofman, Amit Sharma, Duncan J Watts

2017 Science

PDF Publisher link

Online and Social Media Data As an Imperfect Continuous Panel Survey

Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake M. Hofman, Emre Kıcıman, David Rothschild

2016 PLOS ONE

PDF Publisher link

Improving Comprehension of Numbers in the News

Pablo J. Barrio, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman

2016 Proceedings of the 2016 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

PDF Publisher link

Exploring limits to prediction in complex social systems

Travis Martin, Jake M Hofman, Amit Sharma, Ashton Anderson, Duncan J Watts

2016 Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on World Wide Web (WWW)

PDF Publisher link

The structural virality of online diffusion

Sharad Goel, Ashton Anderson, Jake M. Hofman, Duncan J. Watts

2015 Management Science

PDF Publisher link

Scalable Recommendation with Hierarchical Poisson Factorization

Prem Gopalan, Jake M. Hofman, David M. Blei

2015 Proceedings of the 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI)

PDF Publisher link

Estimating the causal impact of recommendation systems from observational data

Amit Sharma, Jake M Hofman, Duncan J Watts

2015 Proceedings of the Sixteenth ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC)

PDF Publisher link

A Large-scale Exploration of Group Viewing Patterns 🏆

Allison J.B. Chaney, Mike Gartrell, Jake M. Hofman, John Guiver, Noam Koenigstein, Pushmeet Kohli, Ulrich Paquet

2014 Proceedings of the First ACM International Conference on Interactive Experiences for Television and Online Video (TVX)

PDF Publisher link

Sharding Social Networks

Quang Duong, Sharad Goel, Jake M. Hofman, Sergei Vassilvitskii

2013 Proceedings of the Sixth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (WSDM)

PDF Publisher link

Who Does What on the Web: A Large-Scale Study of Browsing Behavior

Sharad Goel, Jake M. Hofman, M. Irmak Sirer

2012 Sixth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM)

PDF Publisher link

Who Says What to Whom on Twitter

Shaomei Wu, Jake M. Hofman, Winter A. Mason, Duncan J. Watts

2011 Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on World Wide Web (WWW)

PDF Publisher link

Everyone's an influencer: quantifying influence on Twitter 🏆

Eytan Bakshy, Jake M. Hofman, Winter A. Mason, Duncan J. Watts

2011 Proceedings of the Fourth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (WSDM)

PDF Publisher link

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search

Sharad Goel, Jake M. Hofman, Sebastien Lahaie, David M. Pennock, Duncan J. Watts

2010 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)

PDF Publisher link

Inferring relevant social networks from interpersonal communication

Munmun De Choudhury, Winter A. Mason, Jake M. Hofman, Duncan J. Watts

2010 Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on World Wide Web (WWW)

PDF Publisher link

Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

Jonathan E Bronson, Jake M Hofman, Jingyi Fei, Ruben L Gonzalez, Chris H Wiggins

2010 BMC Bioinformatics

PDF Publisher link

Learning rates and states from biophysical time series: a Bayesian approach to model selection and single-molecule FRET data

Jon E. Bronson, Jingyi Fei, Jake M. Hofman, Ruben L. Gonzalez, Chris H. Wiggins

2009 Biophysical journal

PDF Publisher link

Characterizing individual communication patterns

R. Dean Malmgren, Jake M. Hofman, Luis A.N. Amaral, Duncan J. Watts

2009 Proceedings of the 15th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD)

PDF Publisher link

CentMail: Rate Limiting via Certified Micro-Donations

Sharad Goel, Jake M. Hofman, John Langford, David Pennock, Daniel Reeves

2009 WWW 2009 Developers Track

PDF Publisher link

Allosteric collaboration between elongation factor G and the ribosomal L1 stalk directs tRNA movements during translation

Jingyi Fei, Jon E. Bronson, Jake M. Hofman, Rathi L. Srinivas, Chris H. Wiggins, Ruben L. Gonzalez

2009 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)

PDF Publisher link

Quantification of cell edge velocities and traction forces reveals distinct motility modules during cell spreading

Benjamin J Dubin-Thaler, Jake M Hofman, Yunfei Cai, Harry Xenias, Ingrid Spielman, Anna V Shneidman, Lawrence A David, Hans-Günther Döbereiner, Chris H Wiggins, Michael P Sheetz

2008 PLOS ONE

PDF Publisher link

Bayesian Approach to Network Modularity

Jake M. Hofman, Chris H Wiggins

2008 Physical Review Letters (PRL)

PDF Publisher link

Opposing effects of PKC-theta and WASp on symmetry breaking and relocation of the immunological synapse

T. N. Sims, T. J. Soos, H. S. Xenias, B. Dubin-Thaler, J. M. Hofman, J. C. Waite, T. O. Cameron, V. K. Thomas, R. Varma, C. H. Wiggins, M. P. Sheetz, D. R. Littman, M. L. Dustin

2007 Cell

PDF Publisher link

Lateral Membrane Waves Constitute a Universal Dynamic Pattern of Motile Cells

Hans-G ̈ther Döbereiner, Benjamin J. Dubin-Thaler, Jake M. Hofman, Harry S. Xenias, Tasha N. Sims, Grégory Giannone, Michael L. Dustin, Chris H. Wiggins, Michael P. Sheetz

2006 Physical Review Letters (PRL)

PDF Publisher link